I have never seen a MT fail other than by gross misuse or immediately from the factory. I have had several ATs fail. There are more moving pieces in the AT, so the likelyhood of them failing is greater.
The CVT has even less moving pieces than the MT, methinks, it just needs to pass the test of time, now. It will have some growing pains, but is the transmission of the future.

Though I really like my 5MT 04 HCH and would have traded it in for an 06 MT HCH if they made it.

 

Granted, it's not 150k miles, but there are 13 HCH CVT owners in the DB at this moment who've passed 30k, and 3 that have exceeded 50k miles. None - that I'm aware of - have had a problem so far. Not saying its transmission is perfect, I don't any model's that is, but so far so good.

 

I am at 65K on my 03 HCH

 

I'm at 60k, no problems at all.

 

I am at about 2500 miles. Check my post in this forum titled "Bad IMA?". I will find out more soon, I hope.

 

41K and CVT behaves as it did when I got it. I got the warranty too that will make it Honda's problem until 2010 or 100K. :-)

I have seen other comments in other forums about CVT issues, but I observed that these folks were all from harsh climates (South Dakota, Michigan). It's not conclusive, but was interesting they were all from places that got cold for long periods of time.