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What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Old Aug 10, 2006 | 06:50 PM
  #61  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
And another ironic thing here is that the people who drive the most miles are the ones who could see the most savings from hybrids. I'm supposed to reward people with 100 mile commutes with a tax credit? BS.
That would be ME . More like a 75 miles round-trip, though.
Keep in mind , as you are obviously a little steamed about this - these tax breaks will go away soon enough, based on the popularity of the vehicles. The Prius' credit will be totally gone within the next year or so, probably. The Honda's will take a little longer.

I HOPE you don't think this is the only stupid thing that the government does to waste our money. Personally, I don't consider this particular tax credit as stupid, but I'll leave that alone for now.
The tax loophole that let thousands buy 6,000+ pound super-duty trucks and write them off is just one VERY similar example - but far more wateful of our taxes. Why were we rewarding them? Many do it SIMPLY because Uncle Sam makes it SO affordable to drive a behemoth. Business/farm equipment my a$$.
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 07:16 PM
  #62  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by CaptainSpeculation
I'm not spreading fear. I'm saying battery replacement is an unknown factor at this point.

I'm glad you're so smart. Maybe someone can educate me in one single response and impress me with all the facts they knew before they made a purchasing decision (because obviously they wouldn't just get defensive because they already bought a hybrid):

1. How much extra CO2 and other pollutants were released into the atmosphere in designing and producing your hybrid drivetrain components?
2. How much does it really cost Toyota to put a hybrid system in a vehicle? (remember, no speculation, we need facts).
3. What will the future reliability of the Honda and Toyota designs be, including the battery.
4. Based on number 3, what will the depreciation of these vehicles be.
5. Based on number 3, will there be even more CO2 and other pollutants added to the environment in the production of another battery? Or the new transmissions?
6. What will the real servicable life of these cars be?
7. What will the future price of gas be?
8. Are better batteries that cost less than current batteries on the horizon? What is the CO2 output for the production of these new batteries?

The answers to those questions (and I'm sure others I haven't thought of) will determine the real ownership cost, the real greenhouse gas contribution, and whether these hybrids will continue to be produced over the next 20 years.

Nobody here knows the answers. Which means you can't sit on your pedastal and say your vehicle saves the average customer money over the long run, or if it is greener than an equivalent non-hybrid.

It's unknown. So you can't rightly say people (the big bad media) is flat out wrong about their conclusions. It is quite possible there will be no payback with a HCHII. It's also quite possible gas will double, and you will most definitely save money on gas, and your car won't depreciate much. Only time will tell. It's speculation at this point.
I dislike speculation. I dislike unfair comparisons (apples to oranges). I dislike baseless assumptions (every dollar in the price of a car is energy). However, if you eliminate all of these, you will have nothing to say.
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 07:22 PM
  #63  
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Talking Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Private O,

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
Bob, was your alternate vehicle a used 2003 Scion XB?
It was a 2005 Scion xB configured with the same options as the 2003 Prius. That was the alternative, 1500 cc engine car we were looking at.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
Who said anything about a Prius, Bob? I'm talking about an Insight. Since you are an expert though, what is the break-even point on a Prius or Insight if you have to buy a new battery?
In my case, none within the next 14,000 miles left on my transmission and battery warrantee. After that, the going Ebay price is $500, well within the annual insurance and gas savings.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
I know Honda was being nice and giving Insight owners new batteries, but I'm talking about if you have to buy one.
It was a warrantee replacement. Nice of them to honor a business relationship. But batteries from salvage vehicles show up on Ebay for quite reasonable prices.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
How much have the HCH CVTs cost me? Are you really asking that question?
Not really. No one expects anything but softball setups from you.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
How do cabs have anything to do with people commuting 100 miles per day?
Obviously the cabs cover at least 100 miles per day, probably a lot more. Ford is actively selling their Ford Escapes for taxi fleets.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
Worthy, fueleconomy.gov shows people getting 38 to 40MPG with the Echo, not 32. But even at 32, it would still smoke the Prius or the Insight in ownership costs. I think the Prius is probably a nicer car though.
Only the manual transmission Echos. Automatics get a lot worse and the Prius is also an automatic.

Bob Wilson
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 07:29 PM
  #64  
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Talking Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by worthywads
I don't know why the Echo keep coming up as an alternative gas miser. At 32.1 Bob that's not that much better than my Tacoma. My last tank was 601 miles and 33.5mpg, the one before 607 miles and 31.3 mpg. Give me a few more tanks and I should be over 30 average.

Let's use the Tacoma as an alternative miser, with some serious functionality, I paid $18,131.
Well let's see, how many miles on that Tacoma?

To reach the 32.1 of our Echo, you will have to achieve 36 MPG for the same number of miles you've already driven your Tacoma. You'll have to improve your MPG by about 8 MPG. LOL!

Bob Wilson
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 08:01 PM
  #65  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by Mr. Kite
I dislike speculation. I dislike unfair comparisons (apples to oranges). I dislike baseless assumptions (every dollar in the price of a car is energy). However, if you eliminate all of these, you will have nothing to say.
Sorry. Speculation is required, unless you can tell the future.

I don't think every dollar in the price of a car is energy, but I'm confident it is a high percentage. Of course, all one can do is speculate.

Are you telling me the average hybrid owner will recoup their original investment? If so, you're speculating.

Are you telling me that over the lifecycle of a typcial hybrid, the greenhouse gas emissions is lower? If so, you're speculating.

Nobody here seems to be able to come up with a good argument proving either of these points, and yet they are the prime reasons to buy a hybrid. They just want to complain anytime someone says something contrary to their "beliefs".
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 09:10 PM
  #66  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

This is against my better judgement, but I can't resist.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
I'm not spreading fear. I'm saying battery replacement is an unknown factor at this point.
No more or less than any other unknown in a car. Heck, my 92 Voyager went through three transmissions in 70K miles due a design defect. I didn't exactly expect that when I dropped $15K to buy it. You wouldn't think a transmission would be that much of an unknown quantity, but there I was. Sure, I'll give you the batteries are an unknown, but no more or less of a crap-shoot you get with any other vehicle.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
1. How much extra CO2 and other pollutants were released into the atmosphere in designing and producing your hybrid drivetrain components?
Again, no more or less than another car of equivalent size. It's an electric motor and batteries, not a nuclear reactor. Now I don't have any data, but neither to do. So I guess we can agree to disagree. These items are not difficult to manufacture - they are difficult to engineer and design into the car.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
2. How much does it really cost Toyota to put a hybrid system in a vehicle? (remember, no speculation, we need facts).
Don't care. Really. Why does this matter? Somehow they figured out how to make it profitable. Good for them.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
3. What will the future reliability of the Honda and Toyota designs be, including the battery.
Two manufacturers with sterling reliability and quality reputations + electric motor + batteries. I feel pretty good. They have as good a track record as any. Not to mention the many hybrids on this site with 100K+ miles. That puts them 25% better than my van, which couldn't seem to manage a simple 4 speed transmission.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
4. Based on number 3, what will the depreciation of these vehicles be.
Yes, if the batteries are a bust and expensive to replace, our cars won't be worth much in resale unless they are fixed. However, given Toyota and Honda seem to be in this for the long haul, the worst thing they could let happen is allow the bottom to drop out of the market due to faulty batteries. If they are interested in selling these cars 5 years from now, they'll make sure we are taken care of.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
5. Based on number 3, will there be even more CO2 and other pollutants added to the environment in the production of another battery? Or the new transmissions?
No more than the billion cell phone batteries in use. These batteries don't even register a blip on the global scale.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
6. What will the real servicable life of these cars be?
If the batteries are reasonable to replace at the 8-10 year mark, then they'll run as long as other Hondas and Toyotas. That is, forever.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
7. What will the future price of gas be?
Will continue to go up.
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
8. Are better batteries that cost less than current batteries on the horizon? What is the CO2 output for the production of these new batteries?
Probably. I don't get the preoccupation with the CO2 output of manufacturing these items. They're batteries.

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
It's speculation at this point.
Sure. Adopting any new technology is. But I've been treated much worse by products far less speculative. And I like my car. I save $600 a year in gas. And even if the total CO2/energy cost was a push, it's a step in the right direction to technologies that will do even better.
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 09:23 PM
  #67  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by Chilly
I am simply trying to quantify "How much money do you save by pairing a hybrid drive to the ICE." All other factors are irrelevant to THIS question. They ARE relevant to the purchase decision, and I am not arguing that they are not.

To anser the above question you need to compare identical engines with and without the hybrid. Yes the hybrid gives you other benefits, no argument, but if you do a proper comparison, it takes about 5 years to recoupe the initial cost. This doesn't mean you shouldn't buy one. It just means that if you do buy one, strictly to save money, you should be prepared to own your vehicle for longer than the average lease.
Please reread my whole post and you will find that my Camry Hybrid will have paid for its additional initial cost before by next income tax filing, and within a year or two total if you ignore the tax credit. That is my situation based on the closest acceptable alternative that met my minimum requirements (a Camry XLE 6 cyl).

Also, the Camry 4 cyl and the Camry Hybrid do not have the identical ICE. The block is nearly identical, but the bore is different to allow the same compression ratio with the Atkinson valve timing (resulting in a greater expansion ratio). It is the Atkinson cycle that allows the engine to burn fuel with significantly less emissions, but does not add to the production cost (or CO2 emissions during production) of the engine (no additional or more complex components beyond the compression release mechanism for rapid starting, just different cam and stroke). To further improve the efficiency of the engine, the CVT allows operation to stay in optimum RPM ranges which are not appropriate to the Otto cycle version of the engine. Since the CVT is really a fixed ratio planetary power splitter which has no clutch or other frictional components, this tranny should be significantly more reliable than a conventional tranny with clutch and syncros (manual) or with torque converter and bands and clutch (auto). That is not to say the entire drive train is more reliable, but the components having more speculative reliability (electronics/batteries/motors) are covered under the 100K mile warranty.

It is reasonable for me to assume that this car is cheaper for me than the alternative in the short run, and even more so in the long run. My insurance is lower, my fuel costs are lower, my maintenance costs for the first 100K miles are most likely lower (if only for the brake pads!), and my trade value in probably six years (my average time with a car) is likely to be higher than the most similar non-hybrid vehicle I would have considered purchasing.

With that said, it is my firm belief that the overall CO2 and other pollutants associated with the production, use (the biggest total contributor), and termination of this vehicle is substantially less than the alternative XLE V6 model, and that happens to be the number one incentive I had for my purchase. However, in hind sight, the great pleasure I have operating this technological marvel is the best reason to own one! Saving fuel is a most exciting and pleasantly challenging sport that I never imagined I would enjoy pursuing, but I sure do.

-- Alan
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 09:25 PM
  #68  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Also against my better judgement Capt. Obvious, when are you going to do something other than compulsively argue on and on? I wish you had posts of a positve nature, but if they exist they are rare. Isn't it "obvious" that this forum is a place for hybrid drivers, enthuasists, and people considering joining their ranks? We have answered plenty of your questions, even though you contempously ignore answers you dislike. Now would you be so kind as to answer one of ours in a coherant, non-flame baiting manner?
 

Last edited by Delta Flyer; Aug 10, 2006 at 09:33 PM.
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 09:28 PM
  #69  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by bwilson4web
Well let's see, how many miles on that Tacoma?

To reach the 32.1 of our Echo, you will have to achieve 36 MPG for the same number of miles you've already driven your Tacoma. You'll have to improve your MPG by about 8 MPG. LOL!

Bob Wilson
With this sweet little 4 banger anything seems possible, I got 36 on a 50 mile trip a few weeks ago with lots of hills and I'm pulling off 34 typically to and from work.

If I was in Alabama I wouldn't be taking the winter hit I do here. I kept my 88 Ram-50 for 17 years and 180K, I have many years and miles to go bring that average up.
 
Old Aug 10, 2006 | 09:47 PM
  #70  
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Default Re: What is it with the "hybrids are expensive and don't pay off" myth in the media?

Originally Posted by Chilly
I don't disagree with your assessment at all. The point I was simply making is that the reason the media continually discusses a hybrids cost vs gas savings is because they have been marketed as gas savers. From that limited point of view, you need to own your vehicle for an extended period of time for it to pay for itself in gas. If the ONLY reason you are buying a hybrid is for gas savings there are better more economical choices. What the media has failed to understand is that Hybrid owner don't purchase them simple to save gas. There are numerous other motivations behind our purchases.

I wouldn't trade my HiHy for the non-hybrid versions regardless of the "cost savings".
Absolutely. This is why I think the econo-box comparison falls down. I get to drive a regular sized car, with decent power, respectable safety, with adequate options and comfort. It's a unique car that's put a bit of excitement in what would otherwise be a routine car owning experience. All that and 46 mpg. I also agree with your point that the media takes a very one dimensional view of the purchase decision.
 

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