I am the average JOE and I want one of these PHEV'S as soon as possible.The Prius seems like the most likley to come out of the gate first. Maybe Honda ,or chevy. I read that the 2008-2009 prius would have lithion batterys but not sure about a plug in feature ? How many people would trade-in what they now have to get one,I think it will be like a flood gate opening when a PHEV becomes available. Any thoughts ??? joe

 

I will trade my 07 civic hybrid in the minute I can get a Toyota or Honda plug in hybrid.

I think it makes sense that one of the big 3 would be first with Honda and Toyota following their lead. I would think this because if an American company does it they can push the tech as being good for America by helping with energy independence. If a Japanese company is first and the big 3 are lagging behind it will get bashed as a hippie car that doesn't do what you need it to, much like the current hybrid offering.

basically I think the big 3 have more clout with the government and the people and could usher in a rapid adoption more effectively. Plus Toyota or Honda would be well served by letting GM or Ford take the lead as both of those companies are struggling and Toyota doesn't want the image of being the company that destroyed GM. The competition is good.

just my .02

 

Disclaimer: I use Toyota in place of Honda, although you can interchange if you prefer.

I think the big 3 will leap first as well. Toyota (as I understand) already has PHEV Prius in their proving grounds. Switching production would simply require the (non trivial) transition to new high density packs to carry the load. Real trick isn't being able to do it, but doing it cheaply enough that it could be sold as an option.

I doubt marketing would be able to make the case for:

Prius A: HEV HSDII drive train = 25000
Prius B: PHEV HSDII drive train = 35000

Really would need to be a new line of "luxury efficientcy" with the 5-10k premium. I don't know much about batteries (so jump in if I'm off base), but here's what I thought:

-Patents are held that prevent Toyota from specific battery technology. Those run out soon.

-Lithium based battery technology is much more expensive (because of the cost of the Lithium) than Nickle based batteries.

The only reason Toyota would go first (in my opinion) is to develop and license the battery tech (a huge reason). Then the big 3 would have to buy their batteries from Toyota or end up in patent court. This is the trap that Ford fell into since (as I understand) a portion of the FEH is based on licensed tech from Toyota (THS tech).

It would be a big gamble for US auto to go first, since if they mis the mark, they've burned tons of R&D $ (something that I think is in increasingly short supply in the US). If the US successfully markets it, proves it, and carves out a market, only to have Toyota come in 6 months later with a battery half the price and twice the capacity would be my definition of missing the mark. Unfortunately, that's the way I would think it will play out.

Here's a good write up on the batteries. Talks about some battery companies getting bought up. This is probably be where the decision is made, who owns the batteries.

http://www.hybridcars.com/components...-overview.html

 

Plug-in hybrids are not for everyone. Many people in apartments would have no way to plug a car in. I own a house, and I would have to have an electrical outlet installed on the outside of my house. Not a deal-stopper, but still an issue.

Harry

 

I agree up to a point. Pure EV's would have this limitation, but PHEV could use gas in place of an outlet to charge the pack. The plug-in part is just a way to reduce the amount of gas you consume (or more accurately, to consume it from the power substation instead of the filling station). One thing PHEV's would give apartment owners is a HEV with a pack 10 times as dense as current HEV.

This would benefit them because at a certain point HEVs can't store the energy it's capable of recouping because the pack is full. A simple example is some one in Colorado. Lives at elevation X and works at elevation Y. If most of his trip to work is downhill, he could store a good portion of his potential kinetic energy in the pack. Then he could harvest it on the way back. In current HEVs this would only work for short downhill runs.

There are other more elaborate examples that deal with the regained ineffecentcies of internal combustion engines, but it should all work the same.

Where I agree with you completely (although implied) is that the premium for PHEV compared to HEV wouldn't be easily justifiable without a garage to park it in over night.

 

In Europe we had PHEVs for sale from about ten years ago (the diesel-electric Audi Duo, and the Renault Electroad), but unfortunately they were too slow/heavy/expensive and were not successful.

I think the real question is who will be first to market with an affordable PHEV?

For years I would have said Toyota, but now I'm really starting to think GM might beat them to it!

 

There's a really cool aspect to plug-in hybrids - that is, selling your "excess" juice to the grid during the day.

So, your car is parked at work and it is plugged in. Your car gets an e-mail message "The grid needs some power to keep up with cooling demand. Can we buy 25% of your stored power for $2?"

You reply "yes" to the e-mail and the utility sucks the juice right out of your car.

It sounds nutty, because of the infrastructure costs,but it isn't all that nutty when you compare the cost to what it takes to build a new (large) power generation facility. Your car is ALREADY a power generation facility - the problem is, no one but the people IN your car can use that power. In the future, you could have an electricity output that anyone could plug in to, and the utilities will be the first in line (as might your employer)

I'm not saying this will solve all of our energy problems, but it can be used to shave the peaks off the daily loads, and that goes a long way to reducing the number of plants that need to be built.

 

big 3 will never lead the way. too big, too intertwined w/ big oil. jmo.