Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

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Old 02-23-2009, 12:57 PM
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Default Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

Bahrain Crown Prince wants oil at $70-$80 a barrel
LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The price of oil is too low, which will encourage a higher spike when the global economy rebounds, the Crown Prince of Bahrain said on Monday.
His Highness Shaikh Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa said a reasonable price would be between $70 and $80. Currently, oil is about $38 a barrel, down from record levels of $147 a barrel last July.
"Largely driven by global demand, we think that the reasonable price for oil is somewhere in the region of $70 to $80," he told Jeff Randall Live on Sky television.
"At that price producers, small and medium-sized producers, can continue producing, and fields which are needed in a growing economy to be online can actually supply the world."
He warned that failure to reach that price would result in oilfields being shut down and capacity not being ready when the economy recovers.
"At $40 I think we have got an awful lot of people hedging right now to prevent the price dropping any lower because they would frankly just have to shut down.
"And the more difficult fields that are around the globe today would also have to be mothballed.
"Now what that means is that if we do enter an expansionary period in two years, a year and a half, three years, however long it takes, those fields need to be online.
"So unfortunately, with this low price of oil what we are actually encouraging is a higher spike in the future if, if, the global economy rebounds."
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has agreed to slash output in an effort to halt the sliding prices as world oil demand wanes during the economic downturn.
One of its neighbours, Dubai has suffered from a real estate slump that has led to thousands of job cuts, hundreds of billions of dollars in project cancellations and raised concerns about bank asset quality.
This week, it sold $10 billion in bonds to the United Arab Emirates central bank to alleviate worries it could default.
"I think it is unfortunate what is happening in Dubai," the Crown Prince added.
"And Dubai's growth was an opportunity for all of us here in the Gulf.
"I hope that with, I am sure their policymakers dealing with this crisis, they find success because this region needs to be strong for all of us to grow and prosper."
He said Bahrain had "certainly not unravelled like Dubai."
"I think our prudence and our conservatism has been tested, and while one can never see 100 percent into the future and predict everything and claim things that they shouldn't be claiming, I think I can say that I am very proud of what we have been able to achieve.
 
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Old 02-24-2009, 08:11 AM
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Default Re: Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

Ah, so he's only looking out for us, the customer. A prince among men.
 
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Old 02-26-2009, 10:07 AM
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Default Re: Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

But he is right. Some fields are not profitable bellow certain price and going forward the development of new fields will slow down if the low prices persist for long. I wouldn't want invest money into oil field that breaks even at $60-$80 now, no way, since no one knows how long low prices will last.
Also low oil prices will slow down development of alternative sources of energy and fuel efficient cars, putting us back at square one of being addicted to cheap oil.
And to be honest, when oil was heading towards $150 last summer one of the Sheiks was also saying the oil was too expensive, maybe not his problem short term, but long term could lead to global recession and permanent increase of efficient cars and new energy sources. So either way, very high oil prices are good for them short term, bad long term and very low oil prices are bad short term, but could be very good for them long term.
BTW, they don't set oil prices (unless they would put embargo, or artificially cut productions) Wallstreet and consumers do.
As far as Dubai goes, it was exercise in excess and main reason they build so much infrastructure was to protect themselves when the oil wells run dry (projected around 2014-2016), so their problems are as much oil price related as global economy slump started in good old US of A. As a matter of fact their master plan called for not relying on oil production at all in their future, but on tourism and other industries and it's not happening right now.
 
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Old 02-26-2009, 10:19 AM
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Default Re: Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

Originally Posted by Pete4
...they don't set oil prices (unless they would put embargo, or artificially cut productions) Wallstreet and consumers do.....
I agreed up until the reference to Wall Street.
Supply and Demand set price.
Don't listen to the commentators on the evening news, they're hired because they're pretty and know how to read a teleprompter.
Last summer Congress wanted to grill the 'speculators' on why oil was skyrocketing. Somehow, they lost their interest in the grilling when oil lost 75% of it's value. Where were the speculators when oil was plummeting?
Only one thing determines the price of a commodity...supply and demand (okay, that's two things).
No one can corner a global market.
OPEC can't.
A trader can't.
When demand is strong, prices rise.
When demand wanes, prices fall.
That was true in 1900, 1950, 2000 and it's true today...and will be true tomorrow.
The free market sets prices.
 
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Old 02-26-2009, 03:15 PM
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Default Re: Perspective on oil prices from Bahrain's Crown Prince

Originally Posted by haroldo
…Supply and Demand set price. …
Only one thing determines the price of a commodity...supply and demand (okay, that's two things).
No one can corner a global market.
OPEC can't. A trader can't.
When demand is strong, prices rise.When demand wanes, prices fall. …
The free market sets prices.
A 'corner' is usually 'demand-side' driven …
A 'supply-side' action would be a cartel; a limitation on supply.

Now economists have this funny term - 'ceteris paribus' - 'all other things being the same' - meaning that, yes, prices change with demand - IF & WHEN 'supply' remains unchanged.

But what happens if demand remains constant - while supply is restricted?
Prices rise as supply is restricted; fall as supply eases.
Ceteris paribus …

In the real world supply and demand - and prices - constantly change - in response the multitude of factors that live in the real world - including speculators, hedgers, and other such.

Now why would any oil-producing country desire to restrict supply?

It would seem that some countries realized that they would be FAR better off selling 100%nationally-owned oil at $80 (or $800)/barrel than they were in the 1960's when ARAMCO sold oil at $1.80/barrel - of which just $0.32 went to the Saudis. If supply is finite - and won't last forever - why give it away!

For some enlightening reading on this subject, pick up Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert.
 
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