The Bush White House probably just instructed the oil industry to temporarily lower prices to $1.75/gallon by November so that he can get the Republicans re-elected. Then prices will shoot back up to $4/gal when Bush invades Syria, North Korea, Iran, and Lebanon concurrently.

 

Oh Yes it's all the Republicans fault. And they have all the control. Gas prices NEVER fluctuate when Democrats are in power.

(silly)

It’s indisputable that the price of gas always seems to go up during the summer driving season and drops right after Labor Day. And let’s see, Labor Day was a week ago last Monday — right about the time gas prices started dropping.

Winter blend gas is cheaper to refine also.

You want some of the REAL reasons for the drop in prices? See these stories:

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...4thur1-14.html

http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.d...ONEY/609120301

By the way, crude prices jumped from $64 two days ago to over $66 on the 13th. OPEC minister said in essence that they will not allow crude prices to go below $60. That means any further drops will stop around $1.75-$1.80.

Same type of post-August drop happened last year:

 

Since we have retail gas prices going back to the 1990s, there are enough samples, not just the current and last year, to plot the seasonal values, right?

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...dcus_nus_w.htm

I'll post the plot later but general observations:

1) January has wide spread and a lower starting price
2) February shows same spread and some price decrease
3) March show less spread little higher price
4) April shows smallest spread and nearly 5% higher price
5) May shows increasing spread and higher price
6) June shows increasing spread and higher price
7) July shows less spread and slight decreased price
8) August show same spread and slightly higher price
9) September shows slightly higher spread about the same price
10) October shows same spread and clustering lower price
11) November shows increasing spread and no change
12) December shows same spread and lower prices

There are roughly the same number of Democratic as Republican points in the graph and nothing really stands out. There are some higher, local peaks of two month durations with Democratic blue but also one dramatic Democratic drop. There are also two sustained Republican red rises. But again, nothing that clearly shows one administration versus the other as having a problem. There is only a 2% difference in the annual average increase in the cost of gas:

MM Avg(R) Avg(D)
01 92.58% 94.89%
02 92.71% 95.00%
03 95.10% 96.53%
04 100.12% 99.23%
05 103.40% 101.70%
06 103.27% 103.21%
07 102.39% 102.39%
08 104.18% 101.87%
09 106.19% 102.51%
11 103.64% 102.04%
12 101.83% 101.51%

IMHO, there is no smoking gun in the data I've been looking at and I'm a proud, partisan Democrat. Looks like 'the invisible hand' at work.

Bob Wilson

ps. That 2% average increase over the 16 years of data is probably just bad luck. <GRINS>

 

I have to say, I do enjoy reading articles that speculate on the demise of the mid-sized SUV, if for no other reason than that this type of thing often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's like all the pundits or talking heads who say things like 'can X overcome his image as a Y?' The more they say something like that, the more everyone listening thinks that everyone views X as a Y, and then come to view X as a Y themselves. It's a positively reinforced system. Reputations are like that. And the reputations of products are no different.

If there are enough people saying 'SUVs are no longer trendy' or asking the question 'Are SUV sales slumping because they're no longer trendy,' then guess what? Whether it's true or not, soon they won't be trendy, and sales will continue to slump.

 

Saw a cartoon that was funny:

• Picture of a 2-story SUV
• Husband with newspaper headiness: OIL STRIKE IN GULF OF MEXICO
• Husband tells wife: "To think I was soooo close to buying a hybrid...."

 

I'm with the group that says this is typical market forces - although politicians do have a very small amount of say in gas prices. It looks like this:

Sorry, too entertaining to pass up. But really, it's mostly that the instability in Iraq is a constant so it's no longer scaring prices up, no Katrina, typical summer/winter fluctuations - and maybe, just maybe, a little bit of Bush shoring up supplies from important countries.

 

Follow-up: Correct that, it's not a maybe anymore - listen to Bob Woodward on 60 Minutes from the other night, it's towards the end of this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsDEXfhMH7E