In the Baltimore area, the Talk Radio heads bash hybrids early and often. I usually email the shows in order to voice a counter-view. Unfortunately, they read a blurb on the air and then call me a "kook".

The hybrid bashers always cite falsehoods like:
-- They're so dangerous; if you're in a car accident, you're gonna DIIEEE!!
:: Of course, a hybrid Civic is no more (or less) dangerous than a conventional Civic. Same for the Accord, Escape, etc.

-- The batteries will conk out and they'll cost a fortune!
:: the batteries are designed to outlast the car -- by a considerable margin!

-- What would you rather be in a car accident while driving, a hybrid or an SUV?!
:: Whay about the hybrid SUV?

FOOLS! They just don't know what they're talking about. And then these low-IQ, GW Bush-voting idiots call from the trailer parks exclaiming, "ain't no liberal commie gonna take away my Hummer H2. It's a Gawd-given RIGHT!!" ::sigh:: And so many calls are like that. And yet, anytime I see a multi-car "CHiPs"-style pile-up, there's always at least a couple of SUVs in the mix, and never a Prius or an HCH. But that's because people who drive smaller cars generally know how to actually DRIVE!

 

Paradox Alert !!!

Paradox:

[ "low-IQ" GW Bush voters who live in trailer parks CAN'T AFFORD Hummer H2s ]

So you either have heard LOW-IQ trailer parkers, or you have heard Yuppie Hummer Owners, but never shall the twain meet....

 

Well... you've got a point there I got a little carried away.

Greedy corporate execs = Hummer H2
Low-IQ Bushites = beat-up, poorly maintained pickup trucks with danging mufflers

Thanks for the correction!

 

I've seen a $40,000 trailer with a $40,000 F350 (raised of course) parked outside. So they're not always mutually exclusive. However, I can't for the life of me figure that out.

I'm resisting the temptation to comment on the whole Low-IQ Bushite comment (since this isn't a political debate forum, most of the time..). Low-IQ and Bushite are not always connected either. In fact, some very intelligent HCH owners have "W" stickers in the window.

 

Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and get myself in trouble on just my 2nd post. (Please read my 1st post in the INTRODUCTION area. It's titled "INDUSTRY INSIDER JUMPIN' IN")

First of all - I LIKE HYBRIDS.
Secondly - I have no clue who these talk-radio guys are you're talkin' about. Probably wouldn't listen to them if I did.

Now, the facts. The Math.

Lexus RX330: 19 mpg city, 25 hwy Price: About $35,000
Lexus RX400h: 31 mpg city, 28 hwy Price: About $48,000

Assume a person drives 20,000 miles a year. Assume gas costs $3.55 / gallon
Fuel Savings would be $1,446.52 per year. Assume that much of the difference in vehicle price is because of the Performance Package and Voice Activated NAV that you have to take if you buy the RX400h, so maybe only $5,300 of the price difference is the hybrid system. It would take the customer 3.66 years to payback the difference in price. FWIW - at last week's gas prices of $2.55, the payback is 5.10 years. If the driver drives 15,000 miles, payback is at 4.89 years for $3.55 a gallon and 6.80 years for $2.55 a gallon.

Payback will, of course vary from person to person. It is a factor of what you would have bought had you not bought the hybrid. For the case I illustrated, it's comparing similar vehicles. Going from a Land Cruiser to a Prius would yield dramatically different numbers.

Batteries......Industry belief is that the typical battery will last 8 - 10 years. Most (if not all) hybrid warranties will cover the 1st replacement. Batteries are expected to cost in the neighborhood of $3,000 plus dealer markup and the labor to replace.

Peace,

Martin

 

Of course you neglect the environmental impact and you use static numbers for gas. Gas is expected to hit $4.00 next summer but going just with the prices in chicago this week the gas price is $3.35 for regular unleaded. I don't suspect in the next 4 years its going anywhere but up.

Hybrids are not only bought because they have the potential to save you money. They are also bought because the are generaly more environmentaly friendly and also tend to have features that are more high end than their less luxurious brothers.

 

Agreed. I was only responding to the discussion of the radio talk show guys comments on how long it takes for a hybrid to pay for itself with fuel savings. The Prius I'm driving this weekend is rated as a PZEV for emissions. So is a Chevrolet Cobalt. So is a Buick LaCrosse (Allure for my Canadian friends ). In other words, they operate as cleanly as a Prius. The Prius is obviously operating in ZERO mode more often, so it will be marginally cleaner. A hybrid that is not also PZEV would likely not be as emissions friendly as a PZEV rated gasoline vehicle.

I fully expect gasoline prices to move downward once the Southeast US refineries are back on line from the trauma inflicted by Katrina. The prices will not likely drop all the way back to $2.55. Over the course of the next 4 years they will continue to trend upward. Let's suppose that between now and 2009 prices range from $2.55 to $6.55, and average out at about $5.00/gallon. At $5 and 20,000 miles a year average, the payback for the hybrid option on the RX is 2.6 years. So, depending on miles per year driven and gas prices, the payback period for an RX hybrid over an RX ranges 2.6 - 6.8 years. What's a reasonable payback period? Depends on the buyer.

For the most part I agree with what you're saying here. People buy hybrids for reasons beyond economics. That needs to be the case because for the most part they do not make economic sense for the buyer. In general they do make environmental sense, but it is not always a given that a hybrid is more environmentally friendly than a gas engine. It is true if you are comparing vehicles with the same level of emissions certification.

Peace,

Martin

 

Martin,

I didn't check your calcs, but they sound about right for the RX. The numbers are quite different, however, for the Honda Civic and the Prius.

Moreover, you are ignoring the indirect costs of a gluttonous oil economy: Global warming, Health, Military, terrorism -- the real costs of gasoline to society is closer to $10/gallon, if not more. Granted, these costs are currently either hidden, added to the national debt, and or shared across all citizenry for the moment, but they are there, and honest debate should not ignore them.

 

Civic v HCH at 20,000 miles/yr: $2.55/gal 3.55 years, $5.00/gal 1.81 years

Corolla v Prius, 20K/yr: $2.55/gal 4.12 years, $5.00/gal 2.1 years



All valid issues, but not for the auto industry to solve. I also doubt that most consumers internalize these hidden costs when considering the economics of a vehicle purchase. I hope this doesn't come off as callous or dismissing. I'm just pointing out that the things you are talking about and factoring into the cost of gasoline are not central to the consiousness of the average consumer and the auto industry will not go to any effort to place them into stream of consciousness.

Peace,

Martin

 

Civic v HCH at 20,000 miles/yr: $2.55/gal 3.55 years, $5.00/gal 1.81 years

Corolla v Prius, 20K/yr: $2.55/gal 4.12 years, $5.00/gal 2.1 years
-------------------------

Thanks for the calculations. The Prius is I think more accurately valued halfway between a Corolla and a Camry.

We also may wish to add in Federal & State tax credits that I believe are not being taken into account ?

One should also consider the car lifecycle for the owner. Although I think the average US buyer keeps a car for about five years, I suspect Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla/Camry owners are not average. For frugal (or the more PC term value driven) people like myself that perform these calculations based on a 200K mile ownership tiimespan, the numbers are really quite ugly for low MPG cars.

I know your calcs that show upfront cost recup can be used for the same purpose, they reflect a mindset more prevalent in GM land than civic/corolla/camry land:

A Cobalt owner may say: in three years my lease is up, and so the hybrid did not save me anything.
The Civic owner might say: In ten or fifteen years, when this car is ready for the junkyard, the hybrid tech will have saved me .. a bundle.