http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hybrid-cars-still-seen-distant/story.aspx?guid={24DEC4D6-ACA1-4FDD-A0B6-6C38AD5F2E6C}

The title,"Hybrid cars still seen distant from economic break-even," triggered my Google alert and then the rest of the article was full of these curious bits. One one hand, he claims hybrids don't work economicly but ends by mentioning two high-end hybrids that definitely won't ever achieve "economic break-even."

I love the irony that down-scale hybrids apparently need to meet some "economic break-even" by this author that doesn't apply to up-scale hybrids.

Bob Wilson

 

... and as usual, we are seeing the same old theme wherein all comparisons are made to the "low end" model when they talk about the 3K-4K cost premium. Never mind about the rest of the stuff on the hybrid package and the performance differences.

 

And EVEN if the "premium" is considered to be $3-4000, with petrol prices being what they are in Europe ($6/gallon and up, mostly), the "break-even" happens about twice as fast as in the US.
Without some of our (now diminishing) tax-breaks, this changes the dynamics, though.
Even so, the "twice the price and then some" cost of the petrol makes the lack of tax-break not matter quite so much.

This isn't very difficult to figure out:

Hybrid Civic Cost + fuel-cost for x-miles (for break-even) = Regular Civic Cost + fuel-cost for x-miles (for break-even)
Solve for x-miles...

Hybrid Civic Cost + ($6 per gallon/47mpg) * x-miles = Regular Civic Cost + ($6 per gallon/37mpg) * x-miles
Hybrid Civic Cost + (0.1276595 * x-miles) = Regular Civic Cost + (0.1621621 * x-miles)
Hybrid Civic Cost - Regular Civic Cost = (0.1621621 * x-miles) - (0.1276595 * x-miles)
Hybrid Civic Cost - Regular Civic Cost = x-miles (0.1621621 - 0.1276595)
Hybrid Civic Cost - Regular Civic Cost = x-miles * 0.0345026

Plugging in the hybrid "premium" of $3000:
$3000 = x-miles * 0.0345026
$3000/.0345026 = x-miles
86,950 = x-miles (for break-even)

IF they had our $2150 tax-credit (and they still have the $6 gas):
$3000-$2150 = x-miles * 0.0345026
$850/0.0345026 = x-miles
24,636 = x-miles (for break-even)

Right?
Is 87,000 miles an unreasonable amount for break-even? Especially considering that you're using less oil (& funding less terrorism), polluting less, etc. Also, the break-even occurs quicker if petrol prices go up.
Even IF there was never a reachable break-even, so long as you're not taking a financial bath, isn't a hybrid still worthy of your consideration? Most of these articles and studies never really do the math, and act as if this "hybrid premium" is ungodly and will financially ruin the hybrid owner. Hogwash!

Now, the cost of a replacement hybrid battery pack... that is a potential deterrent.