How was he being unprofessional? You asked questions, and he answered them.

Actually, your question was somewhat accusatory, along the lines of asking someone "So when did you stop beating your wife?".

You're belief that the batteries will need to be replaced in 5 years is incorrect, and every hybrid vehicle that I'm aware of has at least has an 8 year warranty on them. So even if you HAD to replace them, it would be at no cost to you.

It should also be noted that hybrid battery packs use load balancing logic to extend the life of the batteries. In other words, you are not charging and discharging all the cells at the same time, or one cell all the time. Different cells are used at different times, thus distributing the cycling load and increasing the life. Similar logic is used in many different systems from jump drives to server farms to intesive computations on multi-processing computers.

It would be very difficult to have the entire battery system fail at the same time. Cells may fail or at least attain sucha low capacity that they're effectively useless, but the whole battery pack won't fail altogether.

Now who is being unprofessional? "Fine! I'm taking my ball and going home!"

But I suppose such statements of wisdom don't apply to you, who in another thread swept aside the the volumes of scientific studies on climatology with what amounts to magical pixie dust.

If you don't want information, don't ask.

~X~

 

Fair enough, Proverbs 23:9.

Bob Wilson

 

Xyrus, someone who behaves professionally does not need to make such snide remarks and is an example to others at all times.

 

Once you graduate and get a job, you will realise that this statement is not correct. You have more time to pursue any wants and desires than most people working do. But if you are like the typical student, you just don't have the money to do it.

 

I suggest that everyone put away their knives and we get back to the title of this thread because it is important IMHO. We don't want to scare new people away either, right? I agree that hybrids do in fact save money in the long run and that we need to get as many people as possible to realize that. Once the demand goes up so will the supply and improved technology will come about at a better pace.

 

Thank you, Owlmaster08. The injection of civility is appreciated.

 

I can't give you real figures for the longevity of the hybrid batteries. The only thing we can report is the data provided by the manufacturers. That said, even assuming a WORST case scenario the Hybrid is still the better choice. Sorry in advance for the long post, but you wanted actual numbers to support the argument......

Take my costs for example. Assuming I equipped my Mariner with the same options as a 'regular' Mariner, I would have paid $32,326 (after tax with $1993 dealer discount off MSRP). That comparable 'regular' Mariner would have cost $29,155 (after tax at INVOICE price). The difference would be $3,171 up front. Take into consideration the Federal Tax credit of $1,950 and that difference drops to $1,221. Since we are talking WORST case scenario, let's assume that is the final difference for a 4wd Hybrid in a state offering no additional credits and the "premium" paid is $1,221 (even though many states offer additional rebates and the FWD version gets another $400 federal).

Worst case, you live in a state with a 8yr / 100,000 mile battery warranty and you drive 20,000 miles per year. After 5 years your battery happens to go bad and needs replacing just out of the 100,000mi warranty. So now we have to calculate your savings over the 5yrs of driving to determine if it makes sense. We assumed 20,000 miles per year. I have averaged about 28mpg since getting my Mariner and I'm no hypermiler. Over 100,000 miles that would be 3,636 gallons of gas which at current prices of $2.70/ga is about $9,950. A comparable "regular" Mariner might get about 18mpg, which equates to 5,400 gallons of gas or $14,675. Overal gas savings is about $4,725. Right now, I believe the cost of a replacement battery to probably be about $2,500. Worst case scenario, the price doesn't go down over the next 5yrs (though that is unlikely we'll go with it).

$4,725 (gas savings) - $1,220 (price premium) = $3,505 saved
Less $2,500 battery replacement = $1,005

Using my math, in a WORST case scenario, with no state rebates, high annual mileage, a battery that fails after 5yrs just outside the limits of the 100,000 mile warranty, and battery costs which don't go down over that 5yr period, and gas prices that don't go up over that 5yr period....you still save $1,000.

 

I checked back with Intellichoice to see if they had more details on their study. Indeed they have some more details but it's hard to interpret.

http://www.intellichoice.com/press/Hybrid-Survey-2006

If I am understanding they took all or most vehicles from a given class and came up with a "5yr Expected Cost". They also came up with a "5yr Actual Cost" for each hybrid. If the hybrids actual cost is lower than the expected cost that means the hybrid is a greater value.

"For the survey, 2006 model year hybrids were analyzed for their Total Cost of Ownership over a five-year or 70,000-mile period. The five-year expected Cost of Ownership for each hybrid vehicle is based on the average cost of all vehicles in each class." - Intellichoice

I wish they would provide more detail than this, including the Total Cost of ownership of all of the vehicles used to create the expected cost. This sure doesn't look like a straight comparison between Hybrid and Non-hybrid by model. They say this info will be available in late January, but I can't find it anywhere.

Doesn't appear they factored in the Alternative Minimum Tax, or Zero Tax issues either, but who can tell.

 

Okay I found the Intellichoice "Cost of Ownership" for each vehicle, you have to select a new vehicle and it will display the cost of ownership along with the MSRP, invoice, and target price.

As I suspected a comparison between Hybrid and non-hybrid of each model comes up somewhat different than comparing to an average of a class. Here's comparing Hybrid to Non with comparable features, Hybrid is not always more economical as the Intellichoice survey claims.

Civic, Hybrid - 23867, EX-26139
Highlander Limited 2wd, Hybrid - 38902, Non - 37186
Highlander Limited 4wd, Hybrid - 40552, Non - 38401
Escape 2wd, Hybrid - 32188, Non - 33267
Escape 4wd, Hybrid - 34696, Non - 35105
Accord, Hybrid - 35288, Non - 34706
Silverado, Hybrid - 39377, Non - 38924

I'm a little disappointed in Intellichoice's methodology.

 

Failures of Prius HV batteries and PSD/HSD/transmissions have been reported in the internet groups, about 10 of each among the 10,000 to 30,000 owners who participate. In most cases the repair costs have been paid by Toyota, at least in part.

Separately, the fact that Prius are 'crashed out' of the rolling fleet faster than they fail functionally, means that used parts are available from salvage vehicle dismantlers. This will always be an inexpensive alternative to negotiating with Toyota over repair costs I reckon.

I have only driven my 2001 Prius 103k miles so far, but there are ways to know that these systems are functioning extremely well so far. Discussions along those lines are generally held in the more technical groups.

It is well to remember that Prius doesn't have a conventional hydraulic transmission, a system that has spawned its own service and repair sub-industry. Those things add 1 to 3 cents per mile to the total ownership costs of vehicles so equipped according to my best guess. It seems very likely that Prius battery and transmission will be less than that.

Prius gasoline engines live a very easy life compared to engine-only vehicles, used oil analyses are remarkably clean, and it would be quite surprising for any of them to fail.

What it all boils down to is that whoever buys these hybrids will have good, cheap, reliable transportation. Due to the high cost of Nickel and the technical shortcomings (so far) of Lithium batteries, this fortunate minority will continue to remain relatively small in number. To the majority, driving more expensive non-hybrid vehicles, I can only wish them well.

DAS