I didn't realize volvo was working on one... but you know what I do remember volvo working on that no one ever talks about? Super high-speed flywheel technology.

 

I'm a reporter for the Los Angeles Times and I need to interview "regular folks" who live in Southern California and would be interested in buying a plug-in hybrid if they were available. If any of you fellow Californians are interested, please contact me at martin.zimmerman@latimes.com. Thanks for your help.

 

It is not just having a workable technology. The technology has to be affordable too.

Today, people already feel that one has to pay too much of a premium for today's hybrids, over gas only. IMHO, doubling that premium for a plug-in, would not yield enough sales.

Would 25,000+ people per year, be willing to pay $40,000 for a basic plug-in Escape?

 

This is a great thread. I laughed.... I cried.... I mostly laughed though.

I think ALL the "plug-in" vehicles, Ford, Toyota, or otherwise are being done by private 3rd parties in co-operation with the auto companies and the buyers. SCE or whomever.

I have visited and donated a few dozen hours to a new start-up company doing Plug-in conversions.... I'm mostly there as a consultant for the Ford Escape Hybrid... and I will tell you, the plug-in is not a simple task to incorporate into an existing vehicle. If built from the assembly line up, it should be easier. And the lithium based cells are VERY expensive.... even at wholesale prices, even when you buy in bulk of 100,000 units at once.

But also keep in mind that plug-ins are not fossil fuel free vehicles.
They are simply a matter of convienience to the user, and shift the pollution and fossil fuel consumption to outside the city limits.

What we need is LOWER POWERED cars. NOT just just plug-ins with the same power. 100 Horsepower from the grid is really not a great improvement from getting 100 Horsepower from the pump. Once society accepts a 15 HP car, that will be progress. Cheers!
-John

 

I'd be stunned if you found more than 100. So I'm wondering now - is it the lack (or perceived lack) of market holding this back, or is it really a technological issue?

 

If the plug in was capable of the first 25-30 miles EV only, then this would meet the needs of most commuters, and they would sell faster than you could make them... IF you could stay under the $40k cap.

Demand is NOT the issue. Demand far exceeds supply.
Technology is NOT the issue. This has been possible for more than 10 years.

PRICE is the obstacle. Right now, the raw materials for a 30 mile pack cost more than $20,000. Add a little cost to recoup R&D and installation, and you now have a $25,000 pack, minimum cost. A cost you can't get around right now.

So your $28,000 to $32,000 Escape just became a $53,000 to $57,000 Escape.

And you have the same "trim" options as now.
The Escape, by most reviews, is an "economy class" SUV.
It's not in the class with Cadillac or BMW, but now you are reaching those prices... for an "entry level" SUV.


I do think the current battery costs $7000 to make.
And Ford is including this in a "Hybrid Package" for $3000, incl all the motors and electronics. It a great deal to the consumer right now.
Right now we are getting a $40,000 Escape for under $30,000.
That's a HUGE discount to the consumer.

Anyone think Ford is going to take a $20k loss per vehicle any time soon?
I'm surprised and impressed they are taking a $10k hit right now!!!!

-John

 

I won't disagree with your numbers - I've seen similar cost data like that for a lithium pack. It's going to have to drop, that's for sure. If it's raw material, that could be a problem. However I don't think any hybrid manufacturer is selling at a loss. It's being offset somehow - maybe in ways we don't know about (tax writeoffs, etc.). I think if there wasn't some kind of up side, they wouldn't come near it.

 

Please read this independent report on the costs of producing lithium-ion cells:

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/149.pdf

When you look at an ESTABLISHED lithium-ion format that is already mass-manufactured (the 18650 cell, rather like an AA cell used in phones and laptops), the raw costs of lithium-ion are LOW.

Look at the summary on page 34 for a breakdown of typical 18650 costs. You will see that each cell costs about $1.70 to make. As each cell contains about 8 Wh of energy, that's equivalent to $213 per kWh, or about $1,300 for your 30 mile pack.

However, go and ask any specialised battery company to create a bespoke, hand-made experimental battery in an entirely new, vehicle size format, and the R&D companies will of course quote $20,000 per pack. That means absolutely nothing.

Once these things are mass-manufactured, there is nothing to stop them being as cheap (or even actually cheaper) than today's 18650 lithium-ion.

 

Clett, thanks for the excellent info! It's encouraging to see nothing inherent in the production of lithium batteries to make it that much costlier than any other battery technologies.

IMO, it's down to the chicken and egg problem: we need to mass produce these battery to make it economically cost effective, but we don't have a market acceptance to mass produce, and mass acceptance for BEV/PHEV is currently hampered by battery cost...

Fortunately, current global problems is an external factor for us to move toward this mass acceptance of much much cleaner and more efficient ways to travel around than the internal combustion engines.

 

I've been told NiMH is land-fill safe.

I've been told Lithium is very toxic and not land-fill safe.

Just something to ponder.