Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
#21
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Here is an alternate view from a purely business perspective. Toyota has such a huge lead in hybrid technology - and a near stranglehold on component manufacturers - that it's nearly impossible for others to succeed. Toyota's oak catches all the sunlight and rain.
IMO, Honda is looking toward diesel longterm. Nissan has no interest other than in staying alive. Ford, with a perfectly capable system, discovers that it cannot grow in Toyota's shadow. GM/MB would rather close their doors than follow in Toyota's lead.
After the recent press releases by all the major players the shape of the future is starting to come into focus.
Toyota - hybrid technology is the centerpiece of it's future powertrain technology no matter the fuel source.
Honda - small hybrids and larger diesels
GM/MB/DC - diesel first, hybrids as an afterthought
Ford - flex fuels
Nissan - ????? is there a problem regarding fuels?
Hyundai - what can we 'benchmark'?
IMO, Honda is looking toward diesel longterm. Nissan has no interest other than in staying alive. Ford, with a perfectly capable system, discovers that it cannot grow in Toyota's shadow. GM/MB would rather close their doors than follow in Toyota's lead.
After the recent press releases by all the major players the shape of the future is starting to come into focus.
Toyota - hybrid technology is the centerpiece of it's future powertrain technology no matter the fuel source.
Honda - small hybrids and larger diesels
GM/MB/DC - diesel first, hybrids as an afterthought
Ford - flex fuels
Nissan - ????? is there a problem regarding fuels?
Hyundai - what can we 'benchmark'?
#22
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Bob
agreed. Good post. However, toyo is limited to what the Chrevron settlement allows them to build. I hope toyo or honda has the guts to find a diff battery to get around the patent , and produce EVs again, which is the real answer here.
How many of us honestly drive more than 150 miles per day? Many of us have 2 cars, so using an EV for almost every purpose is functional. Longer trips can go with the plug in or regular hybrids.
agreed. Good post. However, toyo is limited to what the Chrevron settlement allows them to build. I hope toyo or honda has the guts to find a diff battery to get around the patent , and produce EVs again, which is the real answer here.
How many of us honestly drive more than 150 miles per day? Many of us have 2 cars, so using an EV for almost every purpose is functional. Longer trips can go with the plug in or regular hybrids.
#23
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Originally Posted by Tim
This is where I think E85 is going to be a huge bust. The July C/D had a decent E85 article. MPG hit was was right around 30%, and no real confidence it will cost any lower than gas. Not a lot of incentive to buy one.
You're right on with the CAFE. C/D did covered this in the article too. To paraphrase: Federal law requires that automakers offer for sale vehicles with an average of 27.5 mpg - trucks 22.2 mpg. Failure results in fines. Now the loophole - for the purpose of this calculation, CAFE only considers the 15% gas content of E85 for the purpose of MPG calculation like you said. By this measure, a Tahoe goes from 20.1 mpg to 33.3 mpg. So by offering these land-barges with E85 as an option, they get to raise the fleet mpg. Now they cap mpg benefit from these cars, but according to this article, it's enough for GM to avoid $200M in fines - I would assume Ford too.
I guess their better at gaming the system that doing honest engineering.
You're right on with the CAFE. C/D did covered this in the article too. To paraphrase: Federal law requires that automakers offer for sale vehicles with an average of 27.5 mpg - trucks 22.2 mpg. Failure results in fines. Now the loophole - for the purpose of this calculation, CAFE only considers the 15% gas content of E85 for the purpose of MPG calculation like you said. By this measure, a Tahoe goes from 20.1 mpg to 33.3 mpg. So by offering these land-barges with E85 as an option, they get to raise the fleet mpg. Now they cap mpg benefit from these cars, but according to this article, it's enough for GM to avoid $200M in fines - I would assume Ford too.
I guess their better at gaming the system that doing honest engineering.
Peace,
Martin
#24
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Originally Posted by Delta Flyer
Football fans - Mr. Ford just extended the contract for Matt Millen, argueably the worst General Manager in the NFL. Mismanaging the Detroit Lions is one thing - Ford Motor Co. is another....don't you wish Robert Kraft was the owner?....that would be patriotic if he did.
Peace,
Martin
#25
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Originally Posted by kdhspyder
....
After the recent press releases by all the major players the shape of the future is starting to come into focus.
Toyota - hybrid technology is the centerpiece of it's future powertrain technology no matter the fuel source.
Honda - small hybrids and larger diesels
GM/MB/DC - diesel first, hybrids as an afterthought
Ford - flex fuels
Nissan - ????? is there a problem regarding fuels?
Hyundai - what can we 'benchmark'?
After the recent press releases by all the major players the shape of the future is starting to come into focus.
Toyota - hybrid technology is the centerpiece of it's future powertrain technology no matter the fuel source.
Honda - small hybrids and larger diesels
GM/MB/DC - diesel first, hybrids as an afterthought
Ford - flex fuels
Nissan - ????? is there a problem regarding fuels?
Hyundai - what can we 'benchmark'?
In Europe and parts of Africa and the Middle East, diesel is probably the pre-eminent focus and hybrids are a present but minor factor. I just spent 10 days in Europe and saw no hybrids, and innumerable diesel small cars and combis.
Asia Pacific is a very fractured market. Australia is kind of a morph of North American and European influences and still has a heavy focus on petrol based vehicles. Hybrids could eventually gain popularity there, but as far as I can tell, they haven't taken hold yet. There's a more pronounced pull for alternative fuels. South Korea appears to trending towards small clean diesels. China is likely to provide a true battle ground for the hybrid v clean diesel debate, since the automotive infrastructure is still very formative and growing. Stay tuned there.
Bottom line is each company you've listed has strategies for going to market in each of these regions and those strategies are not identical company to company or even region to region within the same company.
You note that GM and DCX are diesel first, hybrid after thought and that Ford is focused on flex-fuels. GM is probably more diligent on the flex fuel front than Ford. GM has a fairly comprehensive portfolio strategy targeting FlexFuel for vehicles in some segments, diesel for vehicles in some segments, and hybrids for vehicles in some segments. There is some overlap where you'll find two or more of these approaches available on the same class of vehicle. I would believe that Ford and DCX are taking similar approaches.
Peace,
Martin
Last edited by martinjlm; 07-01-2006 at 08:34 AM.
#26
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
hi martin
good points.
I do disagree about one aspect you refer to. Its called the 'winning strategy' you talk about per region. Even though many parts of the country could have infrastucture and other issues, we here in the US are concerned about us here in the US.
Who defines the 'winning strategy' - not us, thats for sure.
Wouldnt the 'winning strategy' for automakers = the most profit possible ?
I take it 'winning strategy' cant mean for the enviroment , or world peace, or in the united states we would all be driving electric cars by now.
The winning strategy rules are devised, made up, implemented, and tweaked by big name players who then TELL US what is going on with whatever spin they see fit to get us to believe they are doing something when its about 2% of what they really could be doing but cant due to various financial and legal wrangling.
just my .02
good points.
I do disagree about one aspect you refer to. Its called the 'winning strategy' you talk about per region. Even though many parts of the country could have infrastucture and other issues, we here in the US are concerned about us here in the US.
Who defines the 'winning strategy' - not us, thats for sure.
Wouldnt the 'winning strategy' for automakers = the most profit possible ?
I take it 'winning strategy' cant mean for the enviroment , or world peace, or in the united states we would all be driving electric cars by now.
The winning strategy rules are devised, made up, implemented, and tweaked by big name players who then TELL US what is going on with whatever spin they see fit to get us to believe they are doing something when its about 2% of what they really could be doing but cant due to various financial and legal wrangling.
just my .02
#27
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
FWIW, here's my OPINION of the Ford statement(s)......
Ford's most recent statement no doubt erodes his and the company's credibility, but also serves to inject a bit of reality into the equation. The only reason his statement is a back-pedal is because he for whatever reason felt compelled to publicize the number of hybrids and E85 vehicles Ford would sell rather than focus on market segments where Ford might apply them. He should be focused on communicating strategy and leave the market forecasting to people who make a lot less money than he does. Two things I can say are true about market volume forecasts.
I could provide you several entertaining stories about how our projections for hybrid product volume has swung up and down over the past couple years. I won't, of course, but I could. And I'm certain similar conversations have been going on at Ford and DCX, so for the CEO to commit to a volume while the troops are still establishing the go to market plan.......Dangerous prognostication is all I can say. Remember, his executive in charge of hybrid program development quit the company a short time after his volume announcement. Might not have been related, but I would not be surprised if it was.
Had it not been for the two prior "commitment" announcements, Ford's statements about the company's direction to pursue hybrid applications, alt fuel applications, and diesel applications would have been viewed much more favorably.
Peace,
Martin
Ford's most recent statement no doubt erodes his and the company's credibility, but also serves to inject a bit of reality into the equation. The only reason his statement is a back-pedal is because he for whatever reason felt compelled to publicize the number of hybrids and E85 vehicles Ford would sell rather than focus on market segments where Ford might apply them. He should be focused on communicating strategy and leave the market forecasting to people who make a lot less money than he does. Two things I can say are true about market volume forecasts.
- They change daily
- They're always wrong. The true value of long term forecasting is in identifying the direction and magnitude of trends, not the 3 digit accuracy of volume forecasting.
I could provide you several entertaining stories about how our projections for hybrid product volume has swung up and down over the past couple years. I won't, of course, but I could. And I'm certain similar conversations have been going on at Ford and DCX, so for the CEO to commit to a volume while the troops are still establishing the go to market plan.......Dangerous prognostication is all I can say. Remember, his executive in charge of hybrid program development quit the company a short time after his volume announcement. Might not have been related, but I would not be surprised if it was.
Had it not been for the two prior "commitment" announcements, Ford's statements about the company's direction to pursue hybrid applications, alt fuel applications, and diesel applications would have been viewed much more favorably.
Peace,
Martin
#28
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Originally Posted by martinjlm
. . .
Remember, his executive in charge of hybrid program development quit the company a short time after his volume announcement. . . .
Remember, his executive in charge of hybrid program development quit the company a short time after his volume announcement. . . .
Bob Wilson
#29
Re: Ford backing off on Hybrid promise
Originally Posted by tomdavie
hi martin
good points.
I do disagree about one aspect you refer to. Its called the 'winning strategy' you talk about per region. Even though many parts of the country could have infrastucture and other issues, we here in the US are concerned about us here in the US.
Who defines the 'winning strategy' - not us, thats for sure.
Wouldnt the 'winning strategy' for automakers = the most profit possible ?
I take it 'winning strategy' cant mean for the enviroment , or world peace, or in the united states we would all be driving electric cars by now.
The winning strategy rules are devised, made up, implemented, and tweaked by big name players who then TELL US what is going on with whatever spin they see fit to get us to believe they are doing something when its about 2% of what they really could be doing but cant due to various financial and legal wrangling.
just my .02
good points.
I do disagree about one aspect you refer to. Its called the 'winning strategy' you talk about per region. Even though many parts of the country could have infrastucture and other issues, we here in the US are concerned about us here in the US.
Who defines the 'winning strategy' - not us, thats for sure.
Wouldnt the 'winning strategy' for automakers = the most profit possible ?
I take it 'winning strategy' cant mean for the enviroment , or world peace, or in the united states we would all be driving electric cars by now.
The winning strategy rules are devised, made up, implemented, and tweaked by big name players who then TELL US what is going on with whatever spin they see fit to get us to believe they are doing something when its about 2% of what they really could be doing but cant due to various financial and legal wrangling.
just my .02
Toyota has deployed what I would call a winning strategy in the US that has focused more on establishing real estate in the mind of the customer and regulatory community at the expense of short term profitability. I am not saying that Toyota is not profitable. It definitely is. But they are able to allow for a lower level of profitability to allow for funding short term / mid term losses to promote hybrid technology at volume levels that other less profitable companies cannot match. By the time other automakers catch up in volume, Toyota will be profitable on the hybrid product lines, although I would suspect that Toyota still makes more profit on a per unit basis for non-hybrid products than they do for hybrid products. If profitability were truly the only measure, Toyota would minimize its volume intent for hybrid applications and serve them up as primarily a halo product to prop up additional sales of their non-hybrid variants (customer comes in because they're interested in a hybrid, can't afford it but drive out with a non-hybrid Toyota that provides better margin per vehicle to Toyota).
Peace,
Martin
Last edited by martinjlm; 07-01-2006 at 09:11 AM.