Maybe it won't get to $4 this Labor Day, but as centrider just said - don't take a lot of comfort in it. Worldwide demand will push it past $4 by next summer for sure, even if no hurricanes or international event comes into play.

 

If the trend continues I'd say $4 by fall 2008. Prices are set by the market, and given the ever increasing demand in the US, China, India etc I see nothing to curb consumption.
As I mentioned before prices more than doubled in 3 years so I think my prediction is reasonable. Don't get me wrong- this is not a wish list, but to be realistic.

 

My guess is it will reach $4 by the end of summer (09/21/07) because of world political events (middle east, etc) and U.S. weather events ( 1 or more land falling gulf hurricanes). The Dallas Morning News had a pg 8 or 10 article back in March talking about how gas would not go higher tha $3 barring the above 2 items. I'm not wishing for either but I would not predict they won't happen either.

 

Who knows, but likely to happen. The last oil market boom ran from about 1978 to 1985 with a peak price of about $90 in today's dollars. Since we are in about year 3 of the current boom, based on the last cycle, there are about 4 or so years remaining until prices drop. Before then unfortunately there is lots of time and room for higher prices.

Assuming a porportionate price response, $3.15(todays gasoline price)*90(potential crude oil price)/65(todays crude oil price) = $4.35 potential gasoline price.

My guess? Late spring of 2008.


Source: http://zfacts.com/p/196.html

 

Is there any evidence to suggest these oil boom/bust cycles are of a consistent length?

Just an honest inquiry, as I don't know...

 

Hmm. I guess one could look at other commodities to establish a cyclical nature to oil prices. However, in the period of the '78-'85 China, India and other newly developing economies were not in the oil market as they are today.

Still, your graph is certainly good looking, tho I can't say how predictive it is which is really the point of such a product.

 

Gasoline $7.45 per US gallon here in the UK.

(But SVO only $2.24 per gallon !).

 

China is determined to become "the" economic powerhouse of the 21st century and they will suck every last drop of oil out of the ground to do it. They've got a hundred million people in progress on the cycle of crappy bicycles, nice bicycles, crappy scooters, nice motorcycles, crappy VWs, nice BMWs as their employment opportunities improve (some are well along, based on how many BWM 700 series cars I saw in Shanghai a few months ago). What is going to happen to oil prices when the other 900 million or so get in on the action. If production does peak in the next little while as some are saying, that will even compound the problem more. The only hope for cheap gas is a devastating recession, if you call that hope. Then you'll see $1 a gallon gas, but of course you won't have a job so will be hard pressed to afford it at that price too.

 

Driving down US 81 South from interstate 90 into Yankton and Vermillion, SD prices down under 3.00/g for that grade with ethanol.

What a contrast (tho what is SVO?).

 

SVO = straight vegetable oil.

Unlike biodiesel, there is no heating or chemicals or treatments involved at all. Just straight off the supermarket shelf and into the tank of an un-modified diesel vehicle.

So long as it is above about 2oC outside, it works fine in many diesel cars without a blip (including mine !).