I have heard this over the last 2 years rumblings that they are having to use extra recovery efforts to get the oil out . We better develope ANWAR soon or we may see a serious shortage, well before we can switch to another fuel or get the FE up for most of the US.

 

Developing ANWAR will not really help I'm afraid. It will take 5-10 years for us to see any results from drilling in ANWAR here in the lower 48 states. Besides, we are producing about 6 million barrels a day and using 15 million barrels per day. That is a net import of 9 million barrels a day. ANWAR is estimated by DOE and the Secreatary of the Interior to hold 10 billion barrels and be capable of 1.4 million barrels per day production.

Link to DOE
http://www.doi.gov/news/030312.htm

15% (if US demand remains static for 5-10 years which it will not under the status quo) is not very much.

You say you don't buy that. Okay. Don't take my word for it. Go to a recent MSNBC report.

Link to MSNBC article
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4542853/

I believe we should immediately embark on a combination energy conservation and solar energy development strategy. If we start both now we could make significant progress toward energy self-sufficiently at the worst and be truly energy independent at the best. It would have a cost but applying bandaids to the status quo will mean another 2 or 3 oil wars in this quarter of the century. Maybe worse than that - and at what cost? One suggestion comes from Scientific American. They outline a solar energy plan for self sufficiency that would cost $400-$500 billion over 40 years.

Link to Scientific American plan
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan

This plan may not be perfect but it is definitely viable. And that sounds really cheap to me. $10-$15 billion a year is a drop in the bucket for a $14 trillion dollar a year economy.

 

I agree with abowles. If we're thinking ANWAR is even a temporary savior, we're sadly mistaken. It's better than nothing, though, even though I hate to see it developed as a temporary patch for a much larger issue. It's like trying to postpone the inevitable, but it won't even postpone it unless we do MUCH work in other areas (alternative fuels & energy, conservation, product improvement, etc.). It's ALL needed - and now.
Doing NOTHING now is the sin. For the sake of our national security, the US should be demanding that alternative power be used for a higher and higher percentage of our overall power-grid needs (windmill, solar, nuclear, hydro, I don't care).
Likewise, whatever the great minds can come up with to reduce our oil usage for transportation - these programs should be put into place or otherwise supported. Never mind the lobbyists for the automakers - "you wanna sell vehicles in THIS country? Then meet THESE demands!" If the US did it, the manufacturers WILL comply. We ARE that huge a marketplace. We have that kind of clout (still). Sure, the automakers will find some loopholes, and cheat as best they can, but the overall improvement would be staggering.
One of our top goals as a country should be energy independence (in my opinion), but even that is a small achievement compared to what will be necessary once the world's oil supply starts to really dwindle. It is going to take Herculean efforts to overcome the outrageous usage in the US. We need to start now.

 

I'd junk my 25 mpg gas guzzler (old chrysler) on ebay.

I'd buy the highest MPG car I could find. Probably a Yaris since they are both cheap ($10,000 used) and high MPG (40). Maybe an old Civic HX (44mpg).

I'd start petitioning Honda to bring back the 70mpg Insight and Volkswagen to revive the 90mpg Lupo. At $5 a gallon it makes sense to dump the old car and get a better one.



I'd also turn off the heat in my house since high gasoline prices also mean higher transportation costs for the electrical plants. Leading to 30 cent per kilowatt-hour rates. Leading to $500 a month bills that I can not afford, and so I'd have to turn off the heat.

 

We need to develop ANWAR NOT to replace Saudi oil but to cushion the loss and buy time to transition to alternatives. It might make the difference between $10 gas and $6 gas and an economic depression. Then we may not have the money to transition! Plus not all oil goes to gasoline production. Plastics, fertilizer etc all com from oil

 

Its not really the politician's fault, really. It had to do with supply and demand. Gas was cheap in the U.S. until around 2005 or so because there was excess capacity relative to global demand. China and India really weren't using that much and thus not bidding up the price.

The current amount of oil that is being extracted is 88mm barrels/day. Even the most industry-friendly group (CERA) says that this could grow to 112mm/day by 2017, most disagree with this optimistic assessment.

Output at discovered oil fields is declining at a rate of 4.5% per year and big oil is scrambling just to keep capacity even. Global demand will keep rising and for the most part the supply is fixed: most believe its not feasible to get global production beyond 110mm barrels by 2030, if even that high.

While there is more oil in tar fields and the such, it is more expensive to extract. The era of cheap oil is over. Blame global demand coupled with mother nature. Like in economics class when you have a fixed supply curve and variable demand the demand is the key determinant of price.

 

Sounds like a good reason to SAVE anwar in case the Mideast dries up, and we need emergency supplies. If we use the oil now, we won't have a backup, emergency supply. We'll have nothing.


For "alternative energies" why not look to the past?

- sailing ships for international trade
- riverboats for internal trade
- small homes
- one-room fireplaces, not whole-house heating
- people worked at home - or they within walking distance of the office
- most people were self-sufficient, making their own goods


This is what a society looks like when it does not have cheap oil to burn. Slower paced and less energy used. This is how america was in the 1700s and 1800s. This is how america will be in the 2100s when oil is as rare as gold, and rooftop solar power is available but costs around $1.00 per kilowatt-hour (in today's money) to maintain and store.

People will no longer be able to live as we live.

 

$2.90 and going down.

 

Do you really think that going back to the 19th century will solve our problems? Do you believe that the American people will accept 19th century lifestyle?

Sail power requires lots of manpower and has 1/500 the cargo. The clipper ships of the 1860s might be able to handle 3 cargo containers and needed 40 men to operate.

Riverboats? Most rivers are no longer navigable because of flood control dams.

Small homes yes thats do able but most new homes are less than 1500 sq ft so how much smaller?

What are you going to burn in the one room fireplace?

Most people already live in cities, but if you are going to be more self suficient then you need to be back on the farm and thats a very hard life. Plus we had 1/4 the population in the 19th century.

Making your own is great except it takes time and does not allow for specialization which is the hallmark of our economy.

Energy is what drives our economy and with out it we are DOOMED. We must develope the next bigger energy source before we run out of oil. If we save ANWAR till the end there will be no reason to use it because the USA wil be dead.

 

For anyone who's interested, check this guy's website out.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/

Click on, Matt Simmons/papers and speeches.

I like this guy because he sticks to actual data as closely as he can, based upon what's available and reliable.

Total world oil production "probably" peaked in May of 2005 at 74,298,000 barrels. This figure was approached in April and December of 2005 and again in July of 2006, but not since then in spite of $90.00+/per barrel oil prices. Demand is somewhere around 83,000,000 barrels.

The difference has been being made up with NGLs (natural gas liquids), refinery improvements, draw down of stock piles and alternative fuels. This has been going on for several decades. The bad news is NGL production tends to increase as oil fields are depleted. So our ability to use more of these products is in and of itself a bad sign.