Oil hits new all time high
 

Today the price of crude oil broke its inflation adjusted all time high of $103.76, spiking to $103.95.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/oil_prices.html

Unfortunately for us, the factors pushing it up are quite different than those of 1980 and it doesn't look like it will abate significantly any time soon.

:angry:

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

On the flip side; my gold that I bought with my tax refund last year has reached $990 an Oz!

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Yup.
I've been buying gold, too; for about two years.

There is a loose, but definite relationship between the price of gold and the price of oil of around 8:1 to 10:1.

It's a pretty safe bet that your gold will be worth $2,000/oz. at around the same time that oil hits $200/brl. Keep buying the gold.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

How about $106

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/mark...ion=2008030711

Do you think we can still invest in oil? It'll continue the upward trend, wouldn't it? :confused:

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

While oil is a non-renewable resource it is being depleted at a slow rate when compared to market gyrations. There are other factors that are impacting the price of oil now, chiefly OPEC production quotas and US refining capacity. If these change it could have a big impact on the price of oil (positive or negative). So I wouldn't invest on the theory that it has to go up because its non-renewable. Oil is going to have its peaks and troughs over the next 40 years or so. More peaks than troughs but whose to say if $106 isn't a localized peak?

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

:rolleyes: I think it somewhat funny (and very, very sad) that the one group that could/should resonably be less concerned about oil prices is one of the most vocal about it.

$105 a barrel for oil...........
 

Is it just me or will anyone else here be laughing at the gas pump this year....
If it hits $4.00 a gallon there will be a mad rush for hybrids.........
I also think the resale on hybrids should do very well in the future............

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Not so sad because its not exactly a random sample. Everyone who drives one of these cars, especially those who visit an enthusiast internet forum, obviously place fuel efficiency high on their chart (if not the top feature) of their vehicle purchase.

Given this is it any surprise that they are still concerned about fuel costs even if they may drive a fuel efficient car? Not really.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

You guys are thinking of this the wrong way. The more expensive gas gets, the more money you are saving and arguably, the smarter you are for having bought your hybrid. You should be celebrating its climb. On a serious note, if conservation is part of your ownership choice then very high gas prices are great. Being hit hard in the wallet is the only thing that will make most North Americans actually try to use less of it. That in the end is good for the environment. We didn't buy yet, but are just about to sign for a 08 HiHY pending some financial details. Decision makes more sense every day.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Post-ante purchase though more expensive gas = more out of pocket expense. While the ROI on our hybrid purchase may make more sense, once you own the hybrid its a sunk cost.

I still prefer cheaper to more expensive gasoline as I'd rather my hybrid choice have a lower ROI but me have a higher net worth at the end of the day than vice-versa :)

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

What we wonder is this: has oil reached a new high, or has the U. S. Dollar hit a new low?

Re: $105 a barrel for oil...........
 

Not really, no.

While gas prices will certainly put pressure on everyone from the car makers to the government to do something as people complain and make do, I'm still paying for fuel, even if it is only once a month. What started as less then $20 has jumped to nearly $40 a month now. Sure the guy in the Hummer is now paying 10 times that or whatever, but I'm still paying twice what I was when I got my Hybrid back in '05.

Though it does look like either this tank or the next tank will put me ahead of "myself" had I bought a conventional Escape rather than the FEH in negating the hybrid "premium" in gas savings.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner!

CNN says some New York Hotels / Merchants ( where they see a lot of visitors ) are accepting Euros for goods and services. Is that legal?

CNN says Mexicans are buying goods in the U.S. because it is cheaper for them over here... using pesos. Is that possible?

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

To answer your two questions:

#1) No it is not legal. But neither is illegal immigration. The question is does our government do anything about it? Of course not. Our government is controlled by corporate interests.

#2) Yes it is perfectly legal. I doubt the validity of this claim but if it were true it would be 100% legal.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Only when the economy completely collapses and you go looking for that gold you all think you own will you realize you can't eat gold even if you can get your hands on it.

Solar panels and wind turbines have actual value, as does arable land and the ability to grow food. Gold, diamonds, flat screen TVs and Luis Viton purses, iphones and other things most people value are actually meaningless if you spend the time to think about it for a few minutes.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Well if the economy collapses to the point that gold loses its value do you really think property rights would be respected?

Also gold is a much better store of value than PV panels: the price of those have been falling every decade and the efficiency has been going up so like anything technology related they might depreciate quicker due to obsolescence.

Unless you are seriously worried about grid crash and the securing your own electricity in this case solar isn't as wise an investment as gold. I don't know enough about wind turbines to comment.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

You might want to take some time to look into solar, as well, since the price on PV panels has been rising, not falling: see e.g., http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1425/

And conventional panels haven't seen all that much in terms of advancements, unfortunately.

While thin-film technology looks promising, it could be that solar power will actually be more expensive than it is right now going into the future. There's a lot of competition for silicone of sufficient purity.

Look, I'm just saying that if in the high-energy-cost future you come over to my house to charge your cell phone and offer me some gold doubloons, I'm going to laugh about what I'm supposed to do with gold. But I might consider, you know, letting you charge up for some oranges and tomatoes.

As for property rights in the high-energy-cost future: yeah, that's a whole other story.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

But they have if this company SunPower's claims are true. They have a 315 & 305 watt PV panels that are the same size as 200/215watt ones so offer 50% more power output for the same amount of space. The 315 watt one (not available in the US not sure why) is 22.7% energy efficient, easily 50% more than conventional PV panels. I've read on the 'net that the Mars Rovers use ~40% efficient solar panels, not sure if this is true but if so it means there is a lot of technology ready to trickle down in this industry.

http://www.sunpowercorp.com/Smarter-...ter_Final.ashx

Right now Sunpower is capitalizing on their innovation by premium pricing: going after the corporate segment where roof space is a limiting factor, but the cost per watt appears the same as conventional panels from what I've read. In 20 years when this stuff comes off patent it will be commoditized like other PV panels and the cost/watt of PV will drop accordingly (it obviously doesn't cost 50% more to manufacture and installation costs will be cheaper).

Increased demand I agree with is what is pushing up prices currently. The industry (suppliers) are growing pretty explosively now though and the supply-demand imbalance has to be a short-term phenomena. Solar was a cottage industry until 2003 or so and is growing very rapidly--hence the temporary lack of availability of sufficient supply.

I think (hope) the renewable energy vs cheap energy debate may very well wind up like the stem-cell debate. Technology advances to the point to make it a moot point. I admittedly don't know a lot about the supply chain issues with silicon, but suppliers will step in if theres money to be made.

20 years from now I see a PV system as being at least 33% cheaper on a cost per watt basis. It still might not be as cheap as coal but it will make the investment a lot easier for most people.

Thin film might be viable for people in rural areas where space is not an issue, but most of the population lives in suburban and urban areas where it is, so I think TF will have a much more limited market.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

The sun only puts out 1500 watts per square meter, at 90' angle.
( noon at the equator )

With lower sun angle at other parts of the day, or living at higher lattitudes, you get less. Add in clouds/fog/smog and you get less.

Let's say on average you have 1000w per square meter to "catch".
Let's say you have some of those million-dollar NASA panels that are 40% efficient. ( I do think that is correct BTW )

You can, on average, capture 400w per square meter.
The whole area of the roof/hood/trunk is say, rounding, 3 square meters.

Say you have 10 hours of daylight.
You could capture, realistically, 12kWh of power.
That is about 50 miles of driving.
So best case, at exceptional cost (six figures I'm sure... $100,000+ ) you could have a 50 mile solar powered car.
But it wouldn't be a fancy car.
It wouldn't be a large family car.
It wouldn't be a vacation car.
It wouldn't have air-conditioning, or if it did, you would have 25 miles of range...total. Same for adding heat in winter = lowered range.

But you could, in theory, have a solar commuter car, like the Insight.
You would need to go less than 25 miles one-way...
Or if you went 50 miles one-way, you'd need to plug-in to recharge at night.

Possible, just very, very expensive right now.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Maybe not solar cars, but I envision plug in vehicles moving more and more into the mainstream over the next 5-20 years and the grid capacity coming from massive PV arrays and wind farms.

It is quite possible that by 2040-2050 solar will have lower cot per watt than coal if technology keeps up, maybe even sooner, here is a good blog on this:

http://entropyproduction.blogspot.co...lar-power.html

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

That was said with tongue firmly planted in cheek.

Going on however, high fuel commodity prices are arguably good for the environment at some levels. Europeans are years and miles ahead in the use of or access to more fuel or environmentally efficient products. It's not that Europeans are more ethical or conscientious than North Americans, merely that high intensity populations and high fuel prices create a demand amongst consumers/voters for solutions which then empowers companies or governments to invest in and provide them. I just put a new high efficiency heating boiler in my house. Of the 5 products I considered, only one was from NA (and it had just been released ) the other 4 were European and all older although most had not been available in NA until recently. I don't like paying more for gas either, and I certainly pay more than most of you. But a nice side benefit might well be that I gain access to many more environmentally beneficial products than I would if energy was dirt cheap. The above comments about solar panels underscores this perfectly.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Definitely arable land is a key to long term survival. But don't underestimate the power of gold. Listen, you can't eat dollars either, but there WILL be some medium of exchange no matter how bad things get and I'm betting that gold will be as good as it has been for the past several thousand years. And I know I own the gold I have in my safe deposit box because I put it there with my own hands.

People who doubt what gold can do should spend a little more time hitting the history books. One of my favorite examples is the escapees from Treblinka death camp in Poland during WWII. Of the few Jews who escaped, the ONLY ones who survived did so because they were able to "steal" some gold from the goldsmith shop before they made their escape (one of the escapees was the camp goldsmith). They were able to elude capture and execution by the Germans because they were able to pay off Polish citizens in gold for food and hiding places. And NO, the Poles didn't help these forlorn folks out of the goodness of their hearts. They helped them for GOLD.

And if gold won't get the job done, then there are my own individual skills and wits, and if that doesn't work, then there's always guns. I have a large enough arsenal (AR15s, shotgun, handguns) and many thousands of rounds of ammunition for it.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Why is it that everyone seeks to find alternative explanations to the high oil prices? We keep hearing it whenever prices go up. It's either a temporary crisis in Sudan, or hostilities in Liberia, or OPEC - in their latest summit - decided to keep production down. Unless it's the latest report on US oil depots, showing low levels. So everyone expects prices to go down soon, this price level is only temporary. Or is it?

Remember the same discussion in 2005, when prices stabilised around 60 USD/barrel. Analysts said prices were going to normalize again, and fall back to 20 or at perhaps 40 USD/barrel. Did they?

Can temporary circumstances around the world make oil prices climb from 60 USD in 2005 and stabilize around 100 USD in 2007? Is OPEC voluntarily keeping production down? They can easily increase production if they only wanted to, can't they? All that's needed is to send Dick Cheney over to talk them into opening the valves.

Honestly, Dick. Save yourself the trouble and embarrassment. And remind me to bump this thread in 2009.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

I think one of the issues is that we are at or close to peak oil, saudi arabia has been fiddling its reserve figures for years, it makes no difference if they put more wells in or not, they can't get the oil out any faster and they are already water injecting their wells.
Oil companies also realise they are at or close to peak oil, everybody whines about refining capacity being low so why don't they just build some more refineries? (its not the environmentalists blocking them) The reason they won't build any more is because it takes 10 years to build one and they know in 10 years the oil supply will be less than it is now, so there will be an EXCESS of refining capacity and a shortage of oil.


http://www.iaconoresearch.com/BlogIm...i_reserves.png

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

It has been reported. Most people just aren't paying any attention. They're too busy watching "American Idol".

Last January president Bush traveled to the Middle East. One of his agenda items was to ask the Saudis for some help with the high oil prices. The King of Saudi Arabia responded that, "World oil prices will be determined by the market now". President Bush's comment after the meeting was that, "We cannot very well expect the Saudis to do something they can't do (increase production)."

One doesn't have to be a genius to read between the lines here. We are Saudi Arabia's most important friend. It is our military might and our service men and women who guarantee the Kingdom's security. The Saudi's virtually always help us out when asked by the President of the United States. They are not turning down our request to increase production because they won't, they are not increasing production because they CAN'T.

Saudi Arabia has lost something on the order of 2 million barrels of daily production capacity. They're pumping around 8.5 million barrels per day, down from their peak production of around 10.5 million barrels per day in the mid 80's. Even if one factors in the possibility (likelihood) that their eighties production represented unsustainable over production, they clearly are no longer in the position they formerly held of being the world's "swing" producer. They no longer have the ability to control prices with their over capacity. Thus the statement last January from the House of Saud.

People who ARE paying attention (oil traders) are beginning to panic. That's why the current bidding war. And it doesn't help one little bit that the Chinese just upped their oil imports by 18% to 3.9 million barrels per day.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Agree 100%, Whiterook.
People have their heads buried in the sand (like an ostrich - NOT looking for more oil :) ).
Either that, or they are blaming our government for not doing more to control the costs. As if the government can do that (any more).

One thing the government could do, but doesn't seem to be interested in doing, is controlling the "excessive use" of oil, and weaning us off of it altogether.
It WILL work itself out - one way or another. I just fear an ugly way (for us citizens) is what's in store. Increased prices for everything due to much higher energy prices, Middle Eastern countries using oil as a weapon (again), gas rationing (again), stock-market crash, eventual massive shortages (including lack of heat and AC in our homes & businesses), military concerns (not enough fuel), etc.

We need to be making serious changes - now.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Actually if this is peak oil we should've been making serious changes back in the late 1980s. I read somewhere that a 20 year lead time was needed to avert a major slowdown, and a 10 year lead time to avert a catastrophic one.

The military will have enough oil: remember it is going to go to the highest bidder. The military will requisition the funds to remain supplied, you can be assured of that. Its the rest of us that should worry.

I don't think America is prepared for both the housing crisis and $4.50 gas simultaneously.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Oh, I agree with that. The time to WAKE UP was after the 1970s oil embargo. Carter tried to get something started, but it fizzled in the 80s. And has been pretty much a non-issue ever since (by both parties).

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Every person can make ethanol. It is easy to do. It is easy to make 190 proof. Uncle Jessie's "Moonshine" or "WhiteLightnig" is easy to make with a backyard still.

You can burn 190 proof in your car today. You can burn 160 proof actually, and you don't need a Flex Fuel "engine". That is a scam I think.
You need a computer chip change, not an engine change. It is a computer chip that rejects ethanol, not the engine itself.

The problem is you and I cannot make 200 proof. You need industrial scale equipment to do that. You need 200 proof to mix with gasoline.

If you do not use gasoline at all, you can use lower proofs!!!

If you drain ( use up ) all the gas in your tank, and add ethanol only, (no E85) you can use any "home-made" proof between 160 and higher.
( It is impossible to make better than 193 proof without extraordinary measures of dehydration, which is a step up and beyond distillation. )

I think once more and more American's start doing this, we will be better off. Just like most people can grow some of thier own food, but not all, americans could make some of thier own fuel, but probably not all.
( Maybe you could run one small commuter car on "home made" ethanol, and use gasoline in the big family SUV? )

BioDiesel is another option. Making gasoline is hard to do ( and where do you get your feedstock? )

Both ethanol and biodiesel are easy to make. A Jr. High or High School student can make both in a science fair project with little $ invested.
And the feedstocks are both countless, and nearly unlimited.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

On ethanol as a fuel I was recently reading Richard Heinberg's "The Party's Over" and he had some observations on that. Depending on your assumptions the EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) is between .59 - 1.34. Anything below 1 is a net loss of energy and oil historically has been >4.

There might be some hope in biodiesel, or even in an offshoot I was reading about recently: biopetrol (using bacteria to grow hydrocarbons). Unfortunately the latter isn't yet ready for prime time. In biodiesel's case there isn't a distribution network yet in place.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Yup.
The gasoline situation is stressful and of course it will get worse, but the thing that worries me the most is the coming bad news with home heating. It's easier (in the short term) to adapt to the transportation challenge; drive less, buy a better car, perhaps move closer to work. But home heating is a different animal. Here in the Northeast we have an enormous inventory of VERY old, utterly energy inefficient, houses. Retrofitting them is such a nightmare that it really would make much more sense to just tear them down and rebuild from scratch (which of course, isn't going to happen).

Even now, the poor, especially in the inner cities cannot pay their heating bills. And you know what the answer is; the utilities charge the people who can pay their bills more to subsidize the people who cannot pay. And I think it's inevitable that sooner or later the politicians will get into the act and start raising taxes to pay for additional public help for the poor. It's going to be very difficult to watch people freeze to death. I don't think very many people have the stomach for that; not even practical, hard headed types like me.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Yep, my father with 35 years experience in the oil biz has said that for years. Large cash expenditures to gain a fractional increase in net energy availability in the best case. IMHO it really is a political expediency to look like something is being done on the energy front that won't require any change in lifestyle or habits. North Americans like voting for people like that. Just ask Jimmy Carter how well things went when he asked Americans to change.
Funnily enough the whole ethanol complex also sees huge amounts of government money subsidizing large corporations.

On another point, one thing that older vehicles need to be careful of is that fuel line components may not be designed to resist high alcohol concentration and it's acidic properties.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

I used to live in MA and when talking to local people and some Canadian folk I used to know it became apparent that the insulation standards set by the states were very poor in comparison to other cold places (IE canada). If the states had passed more stringent legislation regarding home insulation standards years ago they would not be stuck with a legacy of leaky expensive to heat homes now. I am willing to bet some forward thinking people tried back in the day but got shot down by the "less goverment interference!!" lobby, what exactly is their answer now? a shrugging of shoulders I am willing to bet....

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

This is an eye-opener.
A sad and frightening thought.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Plus, keep in mind the oil companies are pretty happy sitting back and collecting ever-higher prices for their refining. No need to build new refineries when they are reaping record profits. And, it's in their best interest, too, to stretch out the consumption time-frame. They stay in this profitable oil-refining business that much longer if the oil isn't ALL used up as quickly. Before the end-of-oil, they'll move on to other things (in order to survive), but it's just too easy right now - it's a big cash cow.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

We should all be this guy: evnut.com

If darelldd can do it, and 12 years ago even (Rav4EV and EV1), why not now, and why not more people? Well, that's been answered above (oil profits). And no, ethanol is NOT the answer, sorry.

Re: Oil hits new all time high
 

Couldn't help bumping this thread. Remember that only little more than a month ago, some experts argued that oil prices would fall back to around USD 90/bl, soon. And good ol' Dick C was going to middle-east to talk prices down. Oh, yeah.