I'll be dipped ...
#1
08-27-2008, 04:45 AM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
I'll be dipped ...
I've been following CNW Marketing in the news since early 2006 when their "Dust-to-Dust" report first came out. Asserting claims that did not stand up to trivial fact finding, this flawed-data, report was flung out of numerous columns only to stick to marginal political groups, part of their propaganda. Sadly the utility of "Dust-to-Dust" has been throughly discredited to the extent that few serious people want to go near vehicle life-time studies(*.) So I was pleasantly surprised to read:
http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2...ng-it-wil.html
Well written and based upon sound math, given CNW's history their data assumptions need to be tested. After all, the real collapse of the SUV/pickup truck market really didn't start until the first quarter of 2008. Supply constrained, hybrid vendors are ramping up production but this doesn't happen over night. Also, wide-spread hybrid acceptance can not yet be assumed in part because "Dust-to-Dust" and other skeptic attitudes continue to poison minds.
Well it is worth a read if nothing else to track:
At least this time, the data claims don't make your head spin:
Bob Wilson
* - I formed 625k Inc., with the goal of getting NHW11, 2001-03 Prius to 625,000 miles so we can someday have an old-farts hybrid car rally.
How Long it Will Really Take to Go Hybrid
Imagine waking up one morning and finding that the only cars on the roads, in the parking lots and nestled in driveways were hybrids or electrics.
CNW Marketing Research put pencil to paper — actually, it turned on its battery-powered calculator — to determine when the U.S. would be totally hybridized and could thumb its nose at Middle Eastern powers who would be forced to hold garage sales to make a few bucks rather than sell a few barrels of oil..
. . .
Imagine waking up one morning and finding that the only cars on the roads, in the parking lots and nestled in driveways were hybrids or electrics.
CNW Marketing Research put pencil to paper — actually, it turned on its battery-powered calculator — to determine when the U.S. would be totally hybridized and could thumb its nose at Middle Eastern powers who would be forced to hold garage sales to make a few bucks rather than sell a few barrels of oil..
. . .
Well written and based upon sound math, given CNW's history their data assumptions need to be tested. After all, the real collapse of the SUV/pickup truck market really didn't start until the first quarter of 2008. Supply constrained, hybrid vendors are ramping up production but this doesn't happen over night. Also, wide-spread hybrid acceptance can not yet be assumed in part because "Dust-to-Dust" and other skeptic attitudes continue to poison minds.
Well it is worth a read if nothing else to track:
...
CNW also concluded that hybrids won't reach 1 million new vehicles sold annually until 2013, won’t reach 10% of all new vehicles sold until 2014, won't reach 50% of all vehicles sold until 2024 and won't reach 10 million unit sales annually until 2026.
...
CNW also concluded that hybrids won't reach 1 million new vehicles sold annually until 2013, won’t reach 10% of all new vehicles sold until 2014, won't reach 50% of all vehicles sold until 2024 and won't reach 10 million unit sales annually until 2026.
...
- 0.35 million in 2007 (widespread sales reports)
- 1.0 million in 2013 (CNW projection)
- 1.5 million in 2014 (CNW projection)
- 7.5 million in 2024 (CNW projection)
- 10 million in 2026 (CNW projection)
Bob Wilson
* - I formed 625k Inc., with the goal of getting NHW11, 2001-03 Prius to 625,000 miles so we can someday have an old-farts hybrid car rally.
